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Forecasters raise jobs estimates, say US economy looking stronger


May 14, 2021

The US economy looks stronger now than three months ago and the employment outlook in the near term has improved as well, according to the second-quarter Survey of Professional Forecasters released today by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Forecasters estimated the US would add an average of 753,000 jobs per month in the third quarter, up from their estimate three months ago of 445,800.

For this quarter, forecasters estimated the US would add an average of 570,600 jobs per month, up from an earlier forecast of 396,100. The estimate comes after a disappointing jobs report for April released last Friday.

Looking ahead, forecasters reduced their average estimate for US jobs in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of 2022. Even with the fewer jobs added in those quarters; forecasters also lowered their average estimate for the US unemployment rate during those quarters.

The panel predicted real GDP will grow at an annual rate of 7.9%, up from the estimate of 5.0% in its previous survey. Over the next three quarters, the panelists also see a stronger rebound in output growth than they had previously predicted.

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